More on: Merrimack · Wake Forest

Merrimack vs Wake Forest prediction and preview: form, key matchups and our pick (2026 Week 10)

College Football Audit · 2026 Week 10 · Game preview

Some Saturdays ask a big question. This one asks a simpler one: can the underdog find any way to make the game uncomfortable? Wake Forest host Merrimack on Saturday, Nov 7, and the opening numbers are lopsided. The Demon Deacons are scoring 39.1 points a game and allowing 17.9, and they just beat Virginia 51–7. Merrimack arrives with a short but real win streak and an offense that has to find answers quickly. The visitors will need to keep this tight into the second half, and that is a tall order against a team playing this well.

How they come in

Start with Wake Forest, because the story begins there. The Demon Deacons have won five in a row, and the last one was a statement. Beating Virginia 51–7 is the kind of result that shows an offense in full rhythm and a defense that is shutting the door. Their scoring margin of 21.2 per game is the headline number. Their offense scores 8.2 above the average, so this is a team that does not need to sweat shootouts.

Merrimack's picture is more modest. They have won two in a row, most recently 19–14 over Wagner. It is a win, and a win is a win, but it was also a tight one that tells you something about how this team operates. Merrimack scores 18 points a game and allows 27.1, which leaves a scoring margin of -9.1. Their offense sits 12.9 below the average. They are winning at the moment, but the underlying profile is of a team that lives in close, low-scoring games and has little room for error.

The matchup that decides it

The cleanest way to frame this is Wake Forest's offense against Merrimack's defense. The matchup numbers put a 12 on that side of the ledger, and it is the biggest number on the page. Merrimack gives up 27.1 a game, and Wake Forest is averaging 39.1. If the home team plays to its norm, the visiting defense is going to be under pressure for most of the afternoon.

The other direction barely registers. Merrimack's offense against Wake Forest's defense comes in at just 0.1, so the visitors have no obvious edge on that side. Wake Forest allows 17.9 a game, and Merrimack scores 18. On paper that is close to even, which is the best news Merrimack can hope for. The problem is that even is not enough when you are on the road and the other offense is the problem. Merrimack's path is to shorten the game, hold the ball and hope Wake Forest stalls early. The numbers suggest that is more a hope than a plan.

Players to watch

Wake Forest's skill group gives us plenty to work with. Gio Lopez is the engine, and he does damage two ways: 229 passing yards per game and another 64 on the ground. That dual threat is what makes a defense's job miserable, because you cannot sit on one thing. Merrimack's defense will have to account for him on every snap, and that is a hard ask for a unit giving up 27.1 points a game.

Carlos Hernandez is the main target, averaging 136 receiving yards a game. That is a huge number, and it gives Lopez a reliable place to go when things get tight. Jamar Searcy adds balance with 78 rushing yards per game. Between the three of them, Wake Forest can attack through the air, on the ground or with the quarterback's legs.

For Merrimack, we have no individual player numbers to lean on here, so the focus is on the team. The visitors will need a clean, steady, ball-control game from the whole group rather than one star carrying the load.

Our pick

Our pick: Wake Forest. The case is about as one-sided as these previews get. The Demon Deacons are home, have won five straight, have a scoring margin of 21.2 and just dismantled Virginia 51–7. Their offense faces the more favorable matchup by a wide margin, and their defense should have more than enough to handle a Merrimack attack that scores 18 a game.

Merrimack is not without a path. Two straight wins mean they are playing with some confidence, and a slow, grinding game is the only version of this that makes the visitors dangerous. But it is hard to see Wake Forest's offense sputtering for long, and once Lopez and Hernandez get going, the pressure on Merrimack's defense only builds. Every major fact we have points the same way.

Confidence: Strong

Key numbers

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Data attribution: Stats for informational analysis only. Verify figures against official league sources.