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Oklahoma State vs Kansas State prediction and preview: form, key matchups and our pick (2026 Week 10)

College Football Audit · 2026 Week 10 · Game preview

Two teams hurting, one of them with a scoreboard-melting offense. That's the setup Saturday, Nov 7, when Oklahoma State visits Kansas State. The Cowboys just lost a 49–51 shootout against Iowa State, the kind of result that stings and also tells you exactly what this team is. Kansas State, meanwhile, has dropped two straight and is looking for a way to stop the slide at home. This is the game that tells us whether the Wildcats' defense can hold up against an offense that has made a habit of running away from people.

How they come in

Start with Oklahoma State, because the numbers jump off the page. The Cowboys score 41.1 points per game and allow 27.1, a scoring margin of 14. Their offense is also scoring well above what their opponents typically give up, with a scoredVsAverage of 10.2. Put plainly, they are not just beating up on soft defenses; they are lighting up everyone. The defense is the obvious soft spot, and the 49–51 loss to Iowa State was a perfect illustration. You can score 49 and still go home empty-handed if you can't get a stop. They lost their last game, a single loss, so there is no deep spiral here, just a team that needs to tighten up.

Kansas State's profile is steadier but less explosive. The Wildcats score 31.8 per game and allow 21.9, a scoring margin of 9.9. That is a good, balanced résumé, and the defensive number is better than Oklahoma State's. But they have lost two in a row, most recently 24–27 against Colorado, a game that came down to the final possession. Their offense is only slightly above what opponents usually surrender, at 0.8. They are doing their damage in a more controlled way than the visitors, and lately that hasn't been enough.

The matchup that decides it

The cleanest way to frame this game is Oklahoma State's offense against Kansas State's defense. The matchup numbers show a wide gap. The Cowboys' offense rates at 19.3 against the Wildcats' defense, while Kansas State's offense rates at only 4.6 against Oklahoma State's defense. In other words, one side of this game looks much more lopsided than the other.

That doesn't mean Kansas State can't score. The Cowboys' defense is leaky, and the Wildcats should find openings. But the question is whether Kansas State can match an offense that put up 49 and has been dropping big numbers all year. Allowing 21.9 per game is a respectable baseline, and the Wildcats will want to slow things down, shorten the game and make Oklahoma State work for every score. If they can control tempo and keep the ball, they stay in this. If it turns into a track meet, the team with the higher scoring rate has the edge, and that is Oklahoma State.

Players to watch

Drew Mestemaker is the engine, averaging 323 passing yards per game. That kind of volume forces a defense to defend every blade of grass, and it explains how Oklahoma State keeps scoring even when games get chaotic. Kansas State's secondary has a long day ahead if it can't get pressure.

The ground game is just as interesting. Caleb Hawkins averages 194 rushing yards per game, a huge number, and he adds 81 receiving yards per game on top of it. He is the kind of player who makes a defense choose its poison. Stack the box and Mestemaker goes over the top; drop back and Hawkins gets loose. Justin Bowick, at 124 receiving yards per game, is the primary target in the passing game and the player Kansas State will most need to account for downfield.

For the Wildcats, there are no individual player numbers in our facts, so the story is the team's balance and its ability to protect the ball and keep drives alive.

Our pick

Our pick: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have the higher scoring rate, the better scoring margin, and the most dangerous collection of skill players in this game. Kansas State's home field and stronger defensive numbers keep this from being a runaway call, and the Wildcats are plenty capable of making it a slugfest. But two straight losses suggest they are searching for answers, while Oklahoma State's offense has been producing no matter the result. The Cowboys' defense is the worry, and it's why we're not going higher than a small edge.

Confidence: Lean

Key numbers

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Data attribution: Stats for informational analysis only. Verify figures against official league sources.